Jesus. I've covered elections for 12 years and never seen anything like this. A FOUR vote margin? The election officials in Runcorn must be sweating through their shirts right now as they count every single ballot for the second time tonight.

Reform UK's chairman Zia Yusuf dropped the bombshell at 4am: "Provisional announcement from Runcorn & Helsby is Reform wins by 4 votes. Labour has demanded a full recount. Here we go again…" And honestly, who can blame Labour? I'd be demanding recounts if I lost my grocery shopping list by that margin, let alone a parliamentary seat.

The punch that started it all

Let's back up. This whole by-election mess started when Labour MP Mike Amesbury—a man I actually interviewed back in 2021 about local housing issues—literally punched a constituent to the ground in what can only be described as a moment of complete madness. Got himself a suspended prison sentence and had to quit. My editor texted me at midnight when that story broke: "Politics finally interesting again. You owe me a pint."

The seat should've been a comfortable Labour hold. They had a 15,000 majority last July, for crying out loud!

Instead, we're watching what might become the closest by-election in British history unfold in real time.

Farage smells blood

I spent Tuesday following Nigel Farage around Runcorn. The man was practically floating—you could see he sensed something the polling hadn't caught. He told me between campaign stops (while nursing what looked suspiciously like a G&T in a water bottle) that internal polling showed them within striking distance.

Didn't believe him then. Feel stupid now.

What the hell happened to Labour's majority?

Win or lose, Reform has completely obliterated Labour's 15,000 vote cushion in this constituency. That's not just a swing—that's a political earthquake in Red Wall territory that'll have Starmer's team reaching for teh anxiety meds.

And it's not just Runcorn. By 4am, Reform had already gained 44 council seats across England, while Labour lost 12 and the Tories shed 36.

I spoke with a Labour councillor in Doncaster around midnight who looked like he'd seen a ghost. "They're taking our voters and we don't know how to stop it," he whispered. Poor bloke.

Remember when Boris thought he'd rule for a decade?

The Tories went into these local elections defending the most seats—the remnants of Boris Johnson's 2021 Covid vaccine bounce when he genuinely believed (and told me over a chaotic Zoom interview) that he'd be in Number 10 until 2030.

How times change.

Kemi Badenoch is now bracing to lose up to 525 council seats. Her team has been frantically spinning this as a "correction" rather than a collapse. Sure, and the Titanic experienced a minor navigation issue.

The West of England wild card

Meanwhile, the West of England Mayoralty race is absolute chaos—a five-way battle where literally any party could win. This after Labour's Dan Norris was arrested for rape, creating a vacuum that everyone's scrambling to fill.

I spent $230 on train tickets last week visiting all the candidates. Waste of money... couldn't pick a winner if you paid me.

Farage's impossible dream

Back in 2019, I interviewed Farage at a Brexit Party rally. He told me then—off the record—that his ultimate goal wasn't just to get Brexit done but to completely reshape British politics. I laughed.

He's not laughing now. And neither is Starmer.

Reform is cutting through by tapping into frustrations about immigration, what they call "wokeism," and the Tories' complete implosion. It's working.

The recount in Runcorn continues as I write this at 5:43am, fueled by my seventh coffee. Will update when we know more...

But whatever happens, one thing's clear: British politics just got a whole lot messier.