I was chatting with my brother-in-law (ex-military, now works in security) last weekend about the absolute state of our prisons. He laughed when I mentioned rehabilitation. "With what space?" he asked. Turns out he wasn't exaggerating.

The Numbers Are Actually Terrifying

So get this - Policy Exchange just dropped a bombshell report saying we need to increase prison capacity by a whopping 48 percent. That's 43,000 more spaces! I had to read that twice because it seemed like a typo. It wasn't.

The prison population has literally doubled over the last three decades. We've now got 87,000 people locked up, and the system is bursting at teh seams. Victorian buildings that should've been museums decades ago are still housing dangerous criminals.

Show Me the Money (£6.5 billion of it)

This isn't gonna come cheap. The report says we need £6.5 billion over the next decade. That's roughly £650 million a year - which sounds astronomical until you consider what we're spending on other things. I looked it up after reading this report... we spent £4.7 billion on the COVID test and trace system in 2020 alone. Just saying.

My cousin works as a prison officer in Leeds. Last Christmas he told me stories that would make your hair curl. Four inmates to cells designed for two. Facilities breaking down weekly. Violence becoming normal.

Are We "Addicted to Punishment"? Yeah, Right.

There's this narrative floating around that Britain has some unhealthy obsession with locking people up. Former prison bosses in this report are calling bullshit on that idea.

The actual problem? Not enough criminals are doing proper time.

God. I remember back in 2019 reading about that guy who committed his fifteenth offense and walked free. Fifteen! My parking ticket from 2022 cost me more stress and money than his sentencing.

The Early Release Lottery Needs to Die

One thing that made total sense in this report was scrapping automatic early release. Instead, they want prisoners to actually earn their freedom by... wait for it... demonstrating good behavior and participating in rehabilitation. Revolutionary concept, right?

I've never understood why we just automatically halve sentences. What message does that send?

Not Just Cells, But Something Useful Inside Them

The report isn't just about warehousing more criminals. They're talking about modern facilities with education, work programs, and gyms.

Listen. If someone's going away for 5 years, they need to come out with something more than prison tattoos and better criminal connections.

My editor visited a Norwegian prison last year for a feature. Came back raving about their reoffending rates. "It's not about being soft," she texted me, "it's about being smart with the time they're inside."

The Bottom Line (and it's not pretty)

Peter Clarke, who used to be HM Chief Inspector of Prisons, put it bluntly: there's literally no alternative to increasing capacity unless we're cool with public safety taking a backseat.

And that's the crux of it.

We can debate rehabilitation vs punishment all day long (and I've had that exact argument with my liberal friends over many bottles of wine). But if the system is so overcrowded that neither works... what's the point?

Until we bite the bullet and invest in proper infrastructure, we're just shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic. And nobody wants that iceberg to hit.