The canny folk of Tamworth, in the heart of middle England, usually know which way the political wind is blowing. The ancient market town ushered in the reign of Tony Blair, switched back to the Tories to install David Cameron in No 10 and voted for Brexit.

The locals of Tamworth have a knack for voting the right way in elections

Now, as it prepares to elect a new MP in a by-election tomorrow, some dyed-in-the-wool Tory voters, such as Judith Lumley, are ready for the constituency to switch to Labour again. The 68-year-old retired project manager told me with a smirk: "I think I will vote Labour, though I’m not telling my husband. "I’ve always voted Conservative but I think it needs a change. Let’s give Labour a chance and see what they can do."

But while some voters seem ready to ditch the Tories, few I spoke to were enthused by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.

Mum-of-two Judith said: "There’s just something about him I don’t like. I think he’s a bit of a show-off."

Tamworth, a Staffordshire commuter town 14 miles north-east of Birmingham, currently has a stonking Tory majority of almost 20,000, won by disgraced MP Chris Pincher.

He resigned last month after being suspended from Parliament for drunkenly groping two men at a private members’ club last summer — revealed in a Sun exclusive.

Tamworth is something of a Petri dish for some of the Tories’ key policies.

Immigration has come under the spotlight, as the town’s Holiday Inn Express is now home to 243 asylum seekers of 13 nationalities, including Afghans, Iraqis, Eritreans and Iranians. Meanwhile the Government’s levelling-up agenda has seen Tamworth receive a £22million boost from its regeneration fund to spruce up its main shopping street.

Derek Nickells, owner of the town’s Toolbox hardware shop, said: "HS2 should have started in the north and branched down. If you started it, you should have finished it."

The Tories are fielding Andrew Cooper, a local councillor and former Army sniper in the Staffordshire Regiment. Chatting in the shadow of Tamworth Castle, Mr Cooper, 31, who served in Kosovo and Iraq, told me he was as "disappointed as anyone else" over the Chris Pincher scandal. And the dad of four said scrapping the Manchester leg of HS2 would free up cash for local rail improvements and filling potholes in the town.

Labour’s candidate, trade union organiser Sarah Edwards, 35, has campaigned to protect greenfield land, boost public services and tackle the cost-of-living crisis.

Teacher Suzie Glasgow, 40, said: ‘I’ll probably vote Labour. I’ve had four Labour canvassers knocking at my door but none from the Conservatives.’ Despite repeated requests from SE, she wasn’t available for an interview.

Turning around a 20,000 majority would be a resounding achievement.

On a recent visit to the town, Labour Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: "No one underestimates the scale of the challenge in this by-election, but there are no no-go areas for Labour."

Bustling Market Street is dominated by a statue of Sir Robert Peel — once the town’s MP and one of the founders of the modern Conservative Party.

Last summer, when the Pincher affair made headlines, locals joked: "The Conservative Party was born in Tamworth in 1834 (when Peel was elected). It died in Tamworth in 2022."

To win in Tamworth, Labour needs a 21.4 per cent swing.

It’s doable — in July, Labour snatched Selby and Ainsty in North Yorks from the Tories on a swing of 23.7 points, and the Lib Dems won Somerton and Frome in Somerset on an even bigger swing of 29 points. A Tory insider insisted that Tamworth is a "Conservative town", adding: "What we’re finding on the doorsteps is that people are still Conservative — they just need a reason to go out and vote." The bookies have Labour as heavy 4/1-on favourites to claim the seat. One former Tamworth councillor tells me he believes the town will plump for Labour on Thursday — then go back to the Tories at next year’s General Election. Rishi Sunak will hope he’s right. For whichever way Tamworth swings, the rest of the nation usually follows.